June 15, 2026
Contact: Eric Stann, StannE@missouri.edu
Even relatively small increases in global temperatures — roughly 1.5°C to 2°C above historical levels — could significantly alter weather patterns across the Mississippi River Basin, according to new research from University of Missouri scientists and their collaborators.
The findings offer insight into how future conditions may affect agriculture, water management and infrastructure planning throughout the basin.
“At its core, we wanted to move beyond abstract temperature averages and look at how relatively modest warming translates into the kinds of heat and rainfall events people actually experience,” Atanas Dommo, a postdoctoral fellow at Mizzou’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources and the study’s lead author, said.
Zack Leasor, Missouri’s state climatologist and a study co‑author, said the models point to a future marked by multiple — and sometimes competing — weather extremes. As temperatures rise, the likelihood of both heat extremes and intense rainfall increases. At the same time, some areas may experience fewer consecutive wet days, allowing the soil to dry out more between storms.
“You can end up with heavier rain when it does occur, separated by longer dry stretches,” said Leasor, who is also an assistant professor of climate science at Mizzou. “That combination is especially challenging for agriculture and water resource management.”
Across the Mississippi River Basin, where farm productivity depends on relatively stable weather, those patterns can strain both crops and soils. Extended dry periods reduce soil moisture and weaken root systems, while hotter conditions accelerate evaporation, compounding stress on plants.
In more extreme scenarios, heavier downpours increase the threat of flooding that can destroy crops, disrupt planting and harvest schedules.
“We’re seeing weather that’s more uneven and more fragmented,” Dommo said. “One area might get heavy rain, while another nearby gets almost nothing from the same system. And even a small jump in warming — from 1.5°C to 2°C — means we’re likely to see longer droughts and more severe flooding. That kind of shift can take a toll on roads and buildings, strain the economy, reduce water supplies, make it tougher to grow food and put added pressure on ecosystems.”
That variability makes planning increasingly difficult for producers, particularly in a region that plays a central role in U.S. food production. Disruptions at the field level can ripple outward, affecting supply chains, commodity markets and food availability well beyond the basin.
Capturing those risks across such a large and diverse landscape is a challenge, Dommo said, but the methodological approach helps clarify both long‑term trends and day‑to‑day variability. By examining temperature and precipitation extremes together, the study helps policymakers and planners better anticipate future risks and prepare adaptive strategies for water management, agriculture and infrastructure.
The study, “Assessment of anticipated changes in extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5°C and 2°C warming over the Mississippi River Basin,” was published in the International Journal of Climatology. Co-authors include Anthony Lupo and Noel Aloysius from Mizzou, and Sherry Hunt from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service.
