University of Missouri

Oct. 14, 2024
Contact: Brian Consiglio, consigliob@missouri.edu

Missouri net farm income is projected to decline in 2024, for the second consecutive year. That’s the latest from the University of Missouri’s Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center’s (RaFF) Fall 2024 Missouri Farm Income Outlook.

Published bi-annually, the report provides state-wide projections of key farm financial indicators for the Show-Me State. Cash receipts, production statistics, government payments and other elements pertaining to agricultural profitability are evaluated to project the state’s net farm income.

Despite its projected $697 million decline to $3.66 billion in 2024, net farm income is still the fourth highest on record in Missouri’s history, following 2021 (third highest), 2022 (record-high), and 2023 (second highest). The report projects that farm receipts will decline an overall $1.66 billion, mostly driven by lower crop receipts and farm related income (crop insurance indemnities).

According to the RaFF report, Missouri net farm income is projected to drop 16% in 2024, compared to the projected 6.2% decline in the U.S. net farm income projected by Mizzou’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

Other projections from the fall 2024 Missouri Farm Income Outlook include:

• Crop receipts will decline $1.4 billion in 2024, as lower crop prices in 2023 and 2024 led to more than 1 million fewer acres in production in 2024.
• Missouri’s cattle and hog inventories and marketings will decline throughout 2024, resulting in a combined 3% reduction in cattle and hog receipts. However, Missouri’s livestock receipts remain stable in 2024 at $6.5 billion, as other livestock receipts increase by a combined $117 million.
• Despite the increase in purchased livestock, production expenses are estimated to decline 4% in 2024 as fertilizer, feed, seed and fuel expenses retreat. Production expenses are projected to decrease even further in 2025.

Looking ahead, the report states that Missouri net farm income will continue to contract in 2025.

Missouri’s Farm Income Outlook is one of multiple state-level farm income analyses published by RaFF this fall. The center co-publishes farm income projections with land-grant institutions in Arkansas, Kansas and Nebraska, and offers additional state-level analyses for key Midwestern and Southern geographies.

"Unfortunately, farm income is projected to decline in calendar years 2024 and 2025,” said Alejandro Plastina, an associate professor of agricultural finance in Mizzou’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources and director of RaFF. “It will be critical for farmers and ranchers to take actionable steps to protect their profit margins and secure sufficient liquidity in order to get through the downturn. MU Extension provides plenty of resources to help with the planning process.”

RaFF provides objective policy analysis and informs decision-makers on issues affecting farm and rural finances. To do this work, the center’s faculty and staff produce consistent farm income projections for states and regions; cooperation with participating states brings local expertise to enhance model design and estimates. Decision-makers use the analysis as they form policies to support farm and rural economies throughout the U.S.